Pakistan made up its mind about the US and the Haqqani network long ago. The grumbling in the US has been the same for over a decade: Pakistan is not going after Haqqani. Trump’s national security team is still operating on the idea that US money but can buy a strategic shift, but they ignore history. Pakistan has carried out military operations, in Swat and Fata (Zarb-i-Azb), when it has felt the imperative, not when the US has asked.
Trump’s strategy is high risk. It’s one thing to exit the region and get tough on Pakistan. It’s another to dig your heels into the war in Afghanistan and then not only get tough on Pakistan but go zero-sum with India. In a single speech, Trump suggested abrogating America’s relationship with Pakistan and deepening it with India. Trump set up the contrast by asking Pakistan to contribute to the values that India represents: civilisation, order and peace. It wasn’t too different from the black and white, ‘with us or against us’ coercive diplomacy of the post-9/11 Bush days. If America is re-committing to Afghanistan, it can’t afford to have an alienated Pakistan next door and join hands with India in Afghanistan at the same time. Pakistan’s paranoia is bad enough already.
Pakistan might placate the US in the short term. They are good at that. But in the long run, little will change. Trump’s bluff can’t be called because he isn’t bluffing. If Pakistan walks away, many will wish that they had done more to manage the relationship.
Note:Pakistan has never had strong relationships in Congress. The US-Pakistan relationship is one between executive branches, including militaries. Now, Pakistan’s only allies might be parts of the State Department, including diplomats in Islamabad, some think tanks, and senators who will listen.
The question that bedevilled the last two American presidents appears to have bewildered the latest one too: what should the US do about Afghanistan?
After months of internal debate, President Donald Trump has unveiled his administration’s strategy in Afghanistan; it is a mixture of the familiar, the tested and the failed. There are some important differences to the strategy former president Barack Obama had pursued.
There will be no timeline for an exit by US troops in Afghanistan. There will be looser rules of engagement for US troops, which will likely lead to more civilian casualties and fresh political turmoil. There will be an increase in covert operations, presaging an increase in tensions with Pakistan over tactical matters. And the possibility of dialogue with the Afghan Taliban has been discarded for the foreseeable future, once again exposing Pakistan to the US mantra of ‘do more’ without a sense that a political settlement is at hand.
For Pakistan, the challenge will be twofold: to not react emotionally to the American president’s invitation, unreasonable though it is, to India to have a greater role in Afghanistan; and to continue to focus on the national priority of progressively reducing the space for all manner of militancy, terrorism and extremism in the region.
It will not be easy. Mr Trump’s speech underlined that there will be no reset in relations with Pakistan; that the trend evident since the final years of the Bush administration will continue; and that ties will remain firmly transactional, with all the possibilities of misunderstanding, frustration and disconsolateness on both sides. Certainly, Pakistan will not be able to simply ignore the demands of a US president who is an avowed isolationist with a fierce desire to see America’s perceived enemies defeated.
Perhaps the best-case scenario for Pakistan would be to continue to push for common sense and reciprocal cooperation with Afghanistan. The banned TTP and other anti-Pakistan militant sanctuaries in eastern Afghanistan and the perception that the Afghan intelligence network may be sympathetic to such groups are problems that can be addressed. Meanwhile, the fight against IS is a unifying factor for all actors in Afghanistan and the region.
Pakistan must also recognise that the American and Afghan focus on the Haqqani network and Pakistan’s alleged ties to the group is a problem that won’t go away. Better, then, to identify areas of potential cooperation with Afghanistan and the US than to allow matters to further unravel.
Now that another US administration has announced its strategy in Afghanistan, there is unlikely to be an immediate course correction. But US policymakers ought to consider that a fundamental mistake they continue to make in Afghanistan is to regard what is essentially a civil war as a counterterrorism problem. The wrong prism cannot produce the right solution.
Pakistan could lose status as privileged ally over Afghan militant support, warns US
Trump's claims of giving billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan were "misleading to the extent that the reimbursements to Pakistan since 2001 only account for part of the cost of ground facilities and air corridors used by the United States for its operations in Afghanistan, rather than any financial aid or assistance," the statement stressed
Pakistan's top political and military leaders on Thursday offered a stark response to Donald Trump's accusations earlier this week, telling the American president that scapegoating Pakistan will not bring about peace in Afghanistan.
The message also reiterated Islamabad's rejection of Trump's allegation that Pakistan harbors militants who battle U.S. forces across the border in Afghanistan. In turn, the Pakistani officials demanded that the U.S. military eliminate militants who use Afghan soil to stage attacks in Pakistan.
Islamabad's response followed an hours-long meeting between Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and army chiefs, all members of the National Security Committee — Pakistan's top forum on issues relating to the country's defense and security.
Pakistan's opposition has asked Abbasi to cancel a scheduled visit by Pakistan's foreign minister to Washington. Pakistan's top opposition leader, cricket-star-turned-politician Imran Khan, also demanded Abbasi convene a special session of Parliament to discuss Trump's threats.
Thursday's meeting of the National Security Committee also noted Trump's comment in which he said Washington paid billions of dollars to Pakistan — only to have it shelter terrorists.
"Scapegoating Pakistan will not help in stabilizing Afghanistan," the committee said, according to a statement issued by the premier's office. It also called for recognition by the Trump administration of Pakistan's many sacrifices — thousands of civilians and security forces have lost their lives in the country's fight against insurgency and militancy on its own soil. The struggle has also cost this Islamic nation $120 billion in economic losses.
U.S. officials and analysts have long accused Pakistan of playing a double-game with Islamic extremists — supporting those that threaten its rivals in India and Afghanistan while cracking down on those who target its own citizens.
Trump's claims of giving billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan were "misleading to the extent that the reimbursements to Pakistan since 2001 only account for part of the cost of ground facilities and air corridors used by the United States for its operations in Afghanistan, rather than any financial aid or assistance," the Paki statement stressed.
KASHMIR
Alqaeda recruitment
Jammu—The police in Jammu was investigating the case of an engineering student who left his studies to become a militant and his photograph holding an AK assault rifle was doing rounds on social media.
Mohammad Eisa Fazli, a resident of Shadab colony near Soura in the outskirts of Srinagar, went missing from his hostel room in Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University (BGSBU) in Rajouri on August 17.
Two days later a picture of him holding the rifle was uploaded on Facebook announcing that he had joined "jihad" (holy war).
He had joined B Tech (IT) course in the university in 2014.
According to the Facebook post, he joined Al-Qaeda cell, 'Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind', headed by engineering dropout Zakir Rashid Bhat alias Zakir Musa.