EARLY WARNING AND INDICATIONS
INTELLIGENCE GAPS???  24th August 2017


CHINA
 Since two decades ago China has been trying to improve its relations with Southeast Asia. There are, at least, four ways how China improving its relations with Southeast Asia, namely 1) developing strategic partnership and working with regional organization; 2) expanding bilateral relations; 3) increase economic ties, and; 4) removing distrust and anxiety in security sphere.Related to the latter, there are also four ways China has been done, to be precise 1) establishing bilateral governmental “security dialogue” with China’s neighbors; 2) developing official military-military exchanges; 3) enhancing China’s participation in ASEAN Regional Forum, and; 4) increasing its military transparency regularly.4 However, even though China has been endeavoring to remove the distrust, it still remains until now. That “anomaly” condition brings out question: why does China threat perception still exist in Southeast Asia even though China has improved its relations with the region?

There are three categories of China’s new threats.First, threats will come from competitive international system. Chinese military discourse believes interstate relations system is conflicted. The nature of interstate relations is anarchical and dominated by state as the central actors. In this kind of system, some countries will enjoy prosperity and humanity, while other countries will suffer from poverty and mercilessness. The world will face together beneficial development and understanding, and, also, conflicts and friction among countries. Consequently, the interstate relations will be fragile and unstable with accelerated global economic and technological change. Second, ocean is a potential source of conflict in future. Population growth and economic development encourage country to find new resources to support its population and economic necessity and ocean is a new place to find that resources. Then, this situation can increase possibility of inter-state conflict in struggles over natural resources to be occurred in an ocean. Third, territorial integrity is important for China’ national interest. There are two important issues related to China’s territorial integrity, namely Taiwan and border threats. To neutralize all this threats China uses three means. Those are national unity, military force and border consolidation.

Chinese force modernization includes four services in PLA, but the priority has given to PLA Navy (PLAN), the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), and also, the strategic missile force or known as the Second Artillery.Ashton B. Carter and Jennifer C. Bulkeley say there are three steps of China’s current military modernization. First step is to downsize the PLA and develop China’s defense R&D system and military industry more efficient. China has ambition to raise the readiness of selected PLA units and train them intensively and perform realistic exercises. The second step is to bring the PLA into the C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligent, surveillance and reconnaissance) system. The third is China plans to maintain strategic nuclear deterrence and challenge U.S. dominance wherever possible.To fill such ambitions, China, then, launched several programs of modernization: • Reduction in force size. • Changes in force structure. • Reform of the structure and missions of the reserves and militia. • Changes in the personnel system. • An influx of new equipments. • Doctrinal revision to prepare the PLA to fight and win Local Wars Under Modern High-Technology Conditions or Local Wars Under Informationalization Conditions. • Improvements in the frequency, content, and methods of military training, with emphasis on joint operations. • Transformation of the PLA logistics system. • Enhancement of all soldiers’ standard of living, pay, and lifestyle. • Modification of the professional military education system.

Furthermore, some experts also noted that China has ambition to build its sea power capability or, even power projection capability.
Hu Jintao, CCP Secretary General and Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman, said “we should strive to build a powerful navy that adapts to the needs of our military’s historical mission in this new  century and at this new stage… We should make sound preparations for military struggles and ensure that the forces can effectively carry out mission at any time”. Then, he explained mission meant to “up hold our maritime rights and interest”

Regarding the power projection capability, in its 2006 defense white paper, China noted its ambition to grab power projection capability for PLA.And, this ambition appeared more clearly when, on August 9-17, 2007, China and SCO member countries did Peace Mission 2007 exercises on Xinjiang, China and Chelyabinsk, Russia. In this exercise China and Russia practiced long distance deployment for airborne, light mechanized armor, and air support elements which included many first-time foreign deployments for the PLA. According to Peter Howarth, recently China is the only East Asian whose big number of submarines.It has also been noted by many experts that China has acquired and built new submarines to fill its ambitions to have sea power or power projection capability. Today china has eight new 636 Kilo-class submarines bought from Russia. Furthermore, China also modernizes and expands its Song-class submarines with new technology. In July 2004, the, China launched its new generation of conventional diesel-electric submarines, named Yuanclass. This confirms China’s ambition to have sea power or power projection capability.


One of the China’s instruments to secure its strategic interests is China’s military power, especially the PLAN. It is why China has big ambition developing sea power or power projection capability for its navy. Unfortunately, this ambition will also increase China’s ability to threaten all navies operating in Asia-Pacific region.This situation makes countries in Pacific basin, including Southeast Asia, give big attentions to PLA modernization. As a result, it has generated anxiety and uncertainty in Asia-Pacific region23 and motivated countries in the region to take actions to respond PLA modernization.

The Cause of China Threat Perception still Remain Threat perception can be reduced by several instruments of confidence building measures (CBM). CBM can be military, diplomatic, cultural, or political. However, military and diplomatic measures are the most commonly used in building confidence among parties involved in protracted conflict. In the short term, CBMs aims to alter the parties' inaccurate perceptions of each other's motives and to avoid misunderstandings about military actions and policies that might otherwise provoke violent conflict. Over time, CBMs can pave the way for more stable political and diplomatic relations, transform the parties' ideas about their need for security, and even encourage moves to identify shared security needs CBM has some characteristics or requirements: 1) CBMs dealing with troop movements and exercises***, 2) CBMs dealing with exchanges of information, 3) CBMs dealing with exchanges of personnel, and 4) CBMs dealing with actions which might be interpreted as provocative. Additionally, the instruments that can be used by countries to develop CBM are publishing defense white paper gradually, doing military officer education exchange, doing joint military exercise, and developing multilateral security cooperation. As previously mentioned, China has done this CBM instrument to improved its relations with Southeast Asia. China has tried to remove this threat perception by doing CBM activities that can be classified into three categories: unilateral, multilateral and bilateral activities. Unilaterally, China offered new security concept that emphasized economic integration and diplomatic mechanism as the pillars of Chinese security policy. Moreover the new concept also declares the mentality of Cold War as outdated. Besides, China is regularly increasing its military transparency as well. Multilaterally, china already engaged with ASEAN31 and signed important agreements with ASEAN countries, namely Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), and Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea 2002. In 1995 China began holding annual meeting with ASEAN’s senior officials.  Furthermore, China enhanced its participation in ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) as well. Chinese participation in various multilateral activities has made Southeast Asia more optimistic about China’s international behavior. Southeast Asia is also pleased to see China actively involving itself in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) program. Southeast Asia also uses these multilateral mechanisms to establish closer relations with China..
*** CHINESE-INDIAN WAR EXERCISE CANCELLED.CBM??
Bilaterally, China established bilateral governmental security dialogue with China’s neighbors and official military-to-military exchanges. However, the number of China’s bilateral defense cooperation with Southeast Asian countries still small. Moreover, bilateral interactions are significant to improve mutual understanding between states. In Southeast Asia, excluding Burma, China has improved its bilateral defense cooperation with Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam,and Indonesia. Among them, Thailand is the country that has most interactions with China. Moreover, according to China’s defense white papers Thailand is the only Southeast Asian country that has bilateral military drill with China (see table 2 and 3). Another Southeast Asian country that has military exercise with China is Singapore. However, China’s military exercise with Singapore was done within the framework of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium

U.S. joint military exercise has made mutual security understanding between countries in Southeast Asia and the U.S., and has made Southeast Asian countries to feel safe and comfortable with the presence of U.S. in this region. Even, all these countries see the U.S. as a security umbrella that gives guarantee for regional stability. So, China need to learn from what U.S. has done in this region. China has to expand and to strengthen its defense interaction in Southeast Asia. For example, China has to extend its joint military drills with Southeast Asian countries and regularly do the drills with them.
Courtesy Wendy Prajuli

EU STAND

Asia is a region in flux. The rise of China and India, in addition to a host of foreign and security policy challenges, have increasingly led the EU to formulate a more political and strategic approach towards the region. In particular, contributing to a stable security environment is becoming increasingly important for the EU if it wishes to maintain its current socio-economic position.

In geopolitical terms, China’s sustained growth provides neighbouring countries with economic opportunities, but also with strategic challenges. Furthermore, Beijing’s defence modernisation has altered the security perceptions in the region, causing the US and its Asian allies to reassess their threat perceptions and defence strategies to varying degrees.

Growing Chinese assertiveness takes place outside of - and in potential opposition to - the US system of alliances which has so far guaranteed peace and stability in the region. The region’s policy makers are therefore increasingly looking for ways to accommodate these changing power relations in an environment still beset by competing nationalisms. Other security threats include the potential for conflict - including the risk of a nuclear confrontation - between India and Pakistan as well as between North and South Korea.

EU strategic and security interests include investing and supporting regional integration mechanisms (ASEAN, ASEM, SAARC); engaging with other emerging powers in South-East Asia and supporting post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan; securing Europe´s energy supply; and addressing state weakness as well as a cross-cutting concern with regards to strengthening the rule of law and human rights throughout the continent. 

The EUISS pays particular attention to the evolving security and strategic dynamics in Asia and their potential effects on the EU. This includes the global implications of the rise of China and India; the security environment and international relations in East Asia, and Chinese foreign policy. The EUISS also researches the conflict in Afghanistan (and its regional dimensions) and South Asian security dynamics including the internal developments and foreign policies of India and Paki